“What do you mean you cannot achieve the target? You’re the project management professional! That’s why we hired you.”
I hear this often. Everyone has worked very hard to assemble estimates for the cost and timescale of a project. Yet the estimates are the one value that is not achieved by the project team. Why? Because any estimate is a prediction – the forecast of an uncertain future. And although I am a project management professional, I cannot predict the future.
“But,” I hear you cry “there are many proven approaches to getting the estimate right”. Yes, there are: optimism-bias adjustment, reference-class forecasting, benchmarking similar initiatives, three-point estimating, Delphi, scenario-modelling, assumptions and constraints analysis, and many more. However, these are all ways of being more confident in an estimate. The estimate still remains exactly that – a guess of what may happen, not what reality actually brings.
Is this philosophical point about change management truly appreciated? It is not uncommon to find that, once an initiative declares an estimate, its governance body treats that prediction as if it is a fact – what shall definitely be achieved. It anchors on that estimate and never lets it go. That things may occur that no-one predicted is just not considered a possibility. Despite all previous historical evidence to the contrary, we unreasonably expect the initiative to occur as first planned.
“Ah, but aren’t these uncertainties risks that should have been identified, assessed and controlled? And shouldn’t money have been included in the project’s budget for just such possibilities?”
The answer is of course “Yes. If you can indeed predict them.” What about the uncertainties that no-one could predict? What happens when the impact of a predicted uncertainty significantly differs from that forecast? Did ANYONE foresee that eventuality? Is it fair to expect a project manager to spot this even when no-one else could? What about the initiative’s estimate then? (A side-bar comment here to all senior managers who believe their project manager should have spotted and allowed for all the possible outcomes: how confident are you in your foresight when setting strategic objectives for your organisation?)
Therefore, it could be argued that it is important that decision-makers do not anchor on the initiative’s initial estimates and investment appraisal. They need to understand that the project is being managed in a dynamic environment. What we plan is not always what we get.
This is one of the reasons why organisations are increasingly segmenting their projects and programmes into chunks, and asking to review the progress of those change initiatives at the end of each chunk. This evidences an understanding that estimated predictions change over time – the situation is fluid. The organisation reviews its initial decision to invest in the light of what has actually happened and the latest outturn estimates predicted. The decision-makers are asking:
“What does the business case justification look like now?”
“Can we afford to continue?”
“Is a decent investment return still achievable?”
“Could I be spending the money somewhere better instead?”
The initial estimate is treated exactly for what it is - a prediction of what everyone believed to be reasonable at the start given what was known at the time.